A Bayesian method for improving probabilistic wave forecasts by weighting ensemble members

A Bayesian method for improving probabilistic wave forecasts by weighting ensemble members.
Harpham, Q.and Tozer, N.P. and Cleverley, P. and Wyncoll, D. and Cresswell, D.
Environmental Modelling & Software, 84 . pp. 482-493. (2016)

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Official URL:http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364815216304029
Abstract:New innovations are emerging which offer opportunities to improve forecasts of wave conditions. These include probabilistic modelling results, such as those based on an ensemble of multiple predictions which can provide a measure of the uncertainty, and new sources of observational data such as GNSS reflectometry and FerryBoxes, which can be combined with an increased availability of more traditional static sensors. This paper outlines an application of the Bayesian statistical methodology which combines these innovations. The method modifies the probabilities of ensemble wave forecasts based on recent past performance of individual members against a set of observations from various data source types. Each data source is harvested and mapped against a set of spatio-temporal feature types and then used to post-process ensemble model output. A prototype user interface is given with a set of experimental results testing the methodology for a use case covering the English Channel.
Item Type:Article
Subjects:Maritime > General
ID Code:1422
Deposited On:18 Aug 2017 11:50
Last Modified:06 Feb 2018 13:25

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