D-MOSS: Dengue forecasting MOdel Satellite-based System
D-MOSS: Dengue forecasting MOdel Satellite-based System.
Tsarouchi, G.and Lumbroso, D.
In: EGU General Assembly 2019, 7-12 April 2019, Vienna, Austria. (2019)
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|Abstract:||D-MOSS, Dengue forecasting MOdel Satellite-based System, is a dengue fever early warning system for Vietnam
being developed by a project funded by the UK Space Agency’s International Partnerships Programme. The
D-MOSS project is developing a suite of innovative tools that will allow public health authorities to identify areas
of high risk for disease epidemics before an outbreak occurs, in order to target resources to reduce spreading of
epidemics and improve disease control.
Since 2000, there has been an increase of over 100% in the number of cases of dengue fever in Vietnam,
with 185,000 cases occurring in 2017 alone, and there is currently no system for forecasting future dengue
The D-MOSS early warning platform includes a water availability component. Water availability directly
impacts dengue epidemics due to the provision of mosquito breeding sites. These dynamics are often non-linear;
too much rainfall can fill outdoor containers, while too little can lead to people storing water in open containers
within their homes. Both increase the population of Aedes aegypti mosquitoes and in turn the risk of dengue
outbreaks. However, water availability or water resource management is rarely accounted for in dengue prediction
The system generates monthly water stress assessments and uses them as inputs to a component of the
dengue early warning system which also improves the skill of the system’s predictions. In addition, these
forecasts of water stress will help to improve Vietnam’s water management. Vietnam’s Sustainable Development
Strategy for 2011-2020 identifies one of the major challenges facing Vietnam as the issue of transboundary water management, because 63% of the surface water comes from upstream countries.
The D-MOSS project is developing a forecasting system in which Earth Observation datasets are combined
with weather forecasts and a hydrological model to predict the likelihood of future dengue epidemics up to eight
months in advance. The system is calibrated against historical data. The water availability forecasts are fed into statistical forecasting models of disease incidence. This dengue early warning system model integrates the water
stress forecast with a range of other covariates important for dengue transmission.
The D-MOSS project is within the first year of its three-year term and is currently focused on platform
and model development, while gathering the key input data and engaging with the Vietnamese government to
ensure that all components are fit for purpose. The portrayal system is designed to communicate the dengue
and water availability forecasts to the Vietnamese Ministries of Health and Natural Resources and Environment,
respectively. A user interface will also incorporate supporting information on recommended actions, provided by
the decision makers and based on the forecasts and associated uncertainty.|
|Item Type:||Conference or Workshop Item (Poster)|
|Subjects:||Water > General|
|Deposited On:||20 Feb 2019 12:26|
|Last Modified:||29 Jul 2019 07:45|
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