Staged uncertainty and sensitivity analysis within flood risk analysis

Staged uncertainty and sensitivity analysis within flood risk analysis.
Gouldby, B.P.and Kingston, G.
In: Flood Risk Management - Research and Practice, 30 September to 2 October 2008, Keble College, Oxford, UK. (2008)

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Abstract:Modelling flood risk is complex and associated with many sources of uncertainty. Models that are unable to capture the full physical processes that they are intended to represent are widely used and some physical processes, like breach formation, for example, are poorly understood. Furthermore, statistical modelling of extreme events is often based on relatively short periods of observed data and knowledge of basic parameters within the flood system, such as defence crest level or floodplain property, is subject to inaccuracies. Uncertainty analysis is intrinsically linked to flood risk analysis and it is increasingly becoming acknowledged as an important component to explicitly include within the decision making process. Whilst methods for uncertainty analysis have been available for many years, these typically become computationally intensive and impractical when applied to flood system risk analysis.
Item Type:Conference or Workshop Item (Paper)
Subjects:Floods > Flood resilience
Floods > Strategy development
Floods > General
ID Code:233
Deposited On:13 Aug 2010 15:12
Last Modified:21 Aug 2014 13:39

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