Long term planning – robust strategic decision making in the face of gross uncertainty

Long term planning – robust strategic decision making in the face of gross uncertainty.
McGahey, C.and Sayers, P.B.
In: FLOODrisk 2008, 30 September - 2 October 2008, Keble College, Oxford, UK. (2008)

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Abstract:Long term planning – robust strategic decision making in the face of gross uncertainty (tools and application to the Thames) Robust long planning presents specific problems. Changing climate, changing socio-economic context as well as deterioration in defence assets all present the decision maker with complex policy choices with regard to what to do for the best. This paper presents research undertaken within FLOODsite to develop of next generation decision support tools that support the user in developing meaningful strategic alternatives (based on a pipeline of multi-staged actions) and assessing their performance through time using credible system risk models (based on the so-called RASP model) together with a structured assessment of their robustness that reflects their performance across a continuous space of climate and socio-economic futures. The science and tools developed through FLOODsite are shown through application to the Thames Estuary. This includes the development of strategic alternatives that include both structural and non-structural measures, climate change (that includes a wide range of possible change in both fluvial and surge conditions) and socio-economic (that includes a range of possible futures described through spatially varying population growth). The change in the defence infrastructure, deterioration and improvement, are also included together with more significant engineering interventions such as barriers and realignment. The selection of robust decisions in the context of these changes is then explored, including the identification of non-regret solutions and adaptable decision pathways.
Item Type:Conference or Workshop Item (Paper)
Subjects:Floods > Flood resilience
Floods > General
ID Code:236
Deposited On:30 Oct 2008 18:29
Last Modified:08 Aug 2014 08:33

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