Development and application of efficient methods for the forward propagation of epistemic uncertainty and sensitivity analysis within complex broad-scale flood risk system models

Development and application of efficient methods for the forward propagation of epistemic uncertainty and sensitivity analysis within complex broad-scale flood risk system models.
Gouldby, B.P.and Sayers, P.B. and Panzeri, M. and Lanyon, J.
Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering, 37 (7). pp. 955-967. (2010)

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Abstract:Increasingly, an understanding of flood risk across regions and nations, and an ability to explore how these might change in time, is seen as a prerequisite to effective and efficient flood risk management. In response, specific flood risk analysis methods have been developed that are both accurate and fast to run. Although widely acknowledged as desirable, it has not previously been possible to quantify the uncertainty associated with the assessed flood probability, consequence, or risk. To help overcome this deficiency, an efficient method for the propagation of epistemic uncertainties through large-scale flood risk system models has been developed and trialed for three pilot catchments. The approach is allied to an efficient sensitivity analysis that enables the influence of individual uncertainties on the output quantity of risk to be isolated, enabling future research, development, and data-gathering efforts to be focused.
Item Type:Article
Subjects:Floods > Flood risk assessment and mapping
Floods > General
ID Code:451
Deposited On:29 Nov 2010 11:44
Last Modified:11 Aug 2014 08:57

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