The use of a Monte-Carlo analysis to assess the uncertainty in the estimates of loss of life from flooding using an agent based model

The use of a Monte-Carlo analysis to assess the uncertainty in the estimates of loss of life from flooding using an agent based model.
Davison, M.and Lumbroso, D. and Tagg, A.
In: 22nd SRA-E Conference, 17-19 June 2013, Trondheim, Norway. (Submitted) (2013)

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Abstract:This paper describes a Monte-Carlo uncertainty analysis undertaken for two case study sites in England using the Life Safety Model (LSM) to assess the sources of uncertainty in loss of life estimates from floods for two cases studies. The LSM is an agent based model that simulates the dynamic interaction of people with the flood hazard. The LSM was applied to two case study areas. The first was Canvey Island, which is located in the Thames Estuary. The island is a low-lying area covering 18.5 km², with an average height of approximately 1 m below the mean high water level. Canvey Island is protected against inundation from the sea by a series of flood defences. In 1953, the island was inundated by the “Great North Sea Flood” that breached the defences and led to the deaths of 58 people and the destruction of several hundred houses. The LSM had been calibrated previously using this event. The second case study considered the failure of a 15 m high dam that stores 2.5 million m3 of water located in a steep valley directly upstream of town with a population of some 14,000 in the middle of England. A dam breach was assessed and the effectiveness of providing a warning on the risk to people was also estimated. The research used a Monte-Carlo analysis to estimate the sensitivity of evacuation times and loss of life for the two case studies to various parameters such as the physical characteristics of people (e.g. height, weight); parameters that affects the strengths of buildings and the stability of vehicles in floodwater. The work has also investigated how vertical evacuation can be used to reduce the risk to people.
Item Type:Conference or Workshop Item (Paper)
Subjects:Floods > Flood impacts
Floods > General
Floods > Flood incident management
ID Code:659
Deposited On:30 Sep 2013 08:37
Last Modified:07 Aug 2017 12:18

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